Many of us woke up this morning with a sense of profound shock. Others haven’t been able to pick our jaws up off the floor, let alone sleep, since the exit polls at 10pm last night. Less than a year after a Conservative prime minister resigned after what many saw as an unnecessary vote, we are (almost) in the same situation again. There will be countless comment pieces packed with speculation and analysis over the coming days about the result, and what might be happening behind closed doors.
It has been a campaign that has defied prediction from the start: from the announcement of the election itself, Labour’s surprising poll surge, to dramatic U-turns on key policy pledges. It has resulted in one of the biggest election shocks in recent, or indeed not so recent, history. And now, after all the drama, we seem further away than ever from a clear blueprint for Britain’s future.
Clearly this result is an unmitigated disaster for the Conservative Party. Having gone into the campaign with a 20 point poll lead and predictions ranging from a solid 40 seat increase to a New Labour style landslide they have not only lost seats but have fallen short of an overall majority. For Theresa May, a leader who ruled by decree not dialogue, the knives are already out. Her Ides of March may be postponed – the Conservatives will want a semblance of order to give them time to take stock - but a lacklustre campaign performance, manifesto missteps, failures on policing and a now non-existent Brexit strategy make it unlikely May will have to dodge any leaders’ debates at the next election.
If we can put aside the results for a moment, it’s worth taking stock of the lessons that can be learnt about the campaigns themselves.
There is a key difference between the two main campaigns which is immediately obvious. One campaign repeated robotic soundbites and shirked open debate. The other took full advantage of a guaranteed platform to take centre stage and engage a whole new demographic. A rise in the youth vote from 43% in 2015 to over 66% this time around has not only fundamentally influenced the result of this election, but perhaps altered the course of British politics. Campaigns embracing social media and harnessing the potential of young people are not new, but for a political and journalistic class bred on the techniques of the Saatchis and Peter Mandelson this shift could prove revolutionary. Everyone, not just those in politics, would be wise to heed this lesson in their own communications strategy.
It is of course important not to get too carried away in the post-election haze. Theresa May’s gamble clearly backfired spectacularly but she remains leader (for now) of the largest party and with a realistic chance of operating with a workable majority in concert with the DUP. For Labour, despite its highest vote share since 1997 and a net gain of nigh on 30 seats, the prospect of an overall majority anytime soon still looks slim.
Naturally everyone would be wise to pause and allow the dust to settle before drawing final conclusions on how this will impact British politics in the longer term. What happens in the next few days and weeks will be a matter of intense speculation and will have profound implications for British politics for perhaps decades. But one thing we can conclude is that a communication strategy that takes a support base for granted, and fails to engage new areas, will inevitably end in bitter disappointment. Just ask Theresa May.