All eyes are on the Labour Party

In case you've missed it, the UK goes to the polls this Thursday, while incumbent President Joe Biden faces renewed scrutiny following his debate performance against Donald Trump, and the far right leads the polls after the first round of France's snap presidential race. With numerous elections across the West coming to a head in the coming weeks and months, it's all to play for.

First, all eyes are on the Labour Party as they cruise towards an expected landslide, with MRP polls consistently showing Sir Keir Starmer approximately 20 points ahead of current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Meanwhile, the Westminster bubble is fully focused on Labour's priorities and roadmap for their first 100 days in office.

Over the weekend, The Sunday Times led with an interesting analysis of Labour's expected timetable for their first 3 weeks in government, reporting that Sue Gray and the wider team "have each drawn up a list of urgent issues in need of attention, known as “black swans” and immediate priorities include ending public sector strikes over pay disputes, fixing Britain's overcrowded prisons, a major housebuilding programme and a sober examination of the British balance sheet.

Across the pond, Joe Biden has faced fresh and painful questions about his ability to defeat Donald Trump in the US Presidential election in November, after his debate performance on Thursday 27th June was criticised as disastrous, confused and uninspiring. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has been scrambling since the debate ended to shore up confidence in their candidate, with rumours swirling that Californian Governor Gavin Newsom could act as an emergency substitute if Biden is unable to continue or command the support of his party. The DNC continues to assert that Biden will not be replaced under any circumstances, with the Democratic leader in the House of Representatives, Hakeem Jeffries, describing the poor debate showing as "nothing more than a setup for a comeback".

Meanwhile in France's first round of voting in the presidential election, the far right Rassemblement Nationale (RN) won 33.1% of the vote, with a left-wing alliance behind on 28%, and President Macron's coalition trailing on 20.76%. This puts the RN within arm's length of power for the first time in its history. RN's nominee for Prime Minister, Jordan Bardella, has said that he wants an absolute majority or he will refuse to form a government, which could put the fate of the Republic in the balance if the election results in a hung Parliament. Current projections, however, note that RN may fall short of the absolute majority they are seeking. With any coalition between RN and the left-wing New Popular Front being impossible, France may become both polarised and paralysed following the second round of voting on Sunday 7th July. For President Macron who called the election unexpectedly after strong gains for the Identity and Democracy (ID) Group in the European Parliament elections in early June, the irony of this self-inflicted blow will be blatant and painful. Atticus will provide a full analysis of the results after Sunday's vote.