As England begins week two of its month long national lockdown, the eyes of the world have been firmly fixed on the USA as Joe Biden was declared as the projected winner of the presidential election by the media. However, as the nights continue to draw in, the election across the pond is far from the only thing on the government’s mind. This week we will also consider the announcement of a COVID-19 vaccine, the internal shake up of Downing Street staff and the latest attempts to secure a Brexit trade deal, and analyse what this all means for the months ahead.
Ridin’ with Biden
After days of vote counting and number crunching, on Saturday last weekend Joe Biden and Kamala Harris finally secured the 270 electoral college votes required to win the White House. While the results will officially be certified in December, in a victory speech in his native Wilmington, Biden expressed his wish to “let this grim era of demonisation in America begin to end”, referring to the Trump presidency. Not only is the defeat of a sitting US president rare, but Biden’s victory also means that California senator Kamala Harris will become the first women and first person of colour to ascend to the vice-presidency. After Hillary Clinton’s defeat four years ago, the Biden-Harris ticket’s victory means that one more glass ceiling has finally been shattered.
While Biden gave his victory speech, accompanied by fireworks and a light display, it is fair to say his opponent is not taking the news too well. In typical Trump style, the president has embarked on a campaign to contest the results in key battleground states, declaring that widespread “voter fraud” is the only reason he did not win re-election. Buoyed by media allies such as Fox News’ Sean Hannity, President Trump continues to tweet out unfounded allegations that “tens of thousands of votes were stolen from us and given to Biden”. While Trump’s complaints and law suits have so far fallen on deaf ears, his moves have no doubt dampened the legitimacy of Biden’s win in the eyes of conservatives. This could have a significant impact on the Biden agenda, as Republican lawmakers could seek to thwart his policy proposals and nominations based on the theories espoused by the president. This is especially likely if Republicans maintain control of the Senate, which will be confirmed if they win at least one of the two run-off races in Georgia, scheduled for early January.
One leader who has been quick to congratulate Biden however is prime minister (PM) Boris Johnson. In somewhat of a coup for the PM, he managed to secure the first phone call of any foreign leader with the new president-elect. While Downing Street will no doubt be happy that the new president has pledged his full support for international institutions such as NATO, there will be concern regarding his position on Brexit. Biden has previously committed to not supporting any trade deal with the UK, should the UK break the terms of the Good Friday Agreement during the EU withdrawal process. Given the ongoing legal dispute with the EU over breaches to the Northern Ireland protocol, Biden’s win could mean that securing a US trade deal will be made significantly harder.
Cummings and goings
As well as a new president in the White House, this week saw a big shake up to the PM’s top team in Downing Street. Months after the infamous Barnard Castle incident, it was announced that senior advisor Dominic Cummings is expected to leave his position by the end of the year. The news comes as one of Cummings’ allies in Number 10, director of communications Lee Cain, announced that he will also stand down following reports of tensions within government.
This is a significant personnel shift as Cain and Cummings were both key to the Vote Leave campaign in the Brexit referendum, and have been seen as two of the people pressuring the PM to maintain a hard-line approach when it comes to Brexit negotiations. The departure of Cain in particular is interesting because over the weekend it had been reported that he had been offered the role of chief of staff. This however led to a revolt amongst the parliamentary party, with some suggesting that Johnson’s fiancée, Carrie Symonds had also been opposed to this plan, raising eyebrows about the influence that the unelected Symonds has within Downing Street.
Overall, with a number of U-turns and communications blunders behind them, Johnson and the government will now try and chart a new course when it comes to securing public support for its decisions. Many are now speculating that the government will now try and soften its image in light of recent U-turns over policies such as free school meals. Johnson is also said to want to recapture his reputation as a ‘one nation’ conservative, but others are concerned about the direction the government could take post-Cummings, as he is believed by many to be the “brains” behind the governments operations, especially on issues such as Brexit. However, with former ITV journalist Allegra Stratton set to begin on screen daily press briefings this month, No 10 will seek to use this opportunity to reset its communications strategy in what will be a critical few months for the government.
Vaccine on the way
While England still languishes in its second national lockdown, there was some much welcome news this week regarding a COVID-19 vaccine. Pfizer and BioNTech announced that its vaccine had been tested on 43,000 people with no safety concerns and would be put forward for emergency approval.
The government has been quick to react, updating the tiered priority list for administering the vaccine. Older care home residents and care home staff are at the top of the list followed by healthcare workers and those over 80. The Guardian is also reporting that the NHS is planning to use football stadiums, and conference centres to help vaccinate up to 5,000 people a day.
However it is important to note that while the official rollout of the vaccine is scheduled to begin in early December, many Whitehall sources have described this timeline as premature, and have cautioned that supplies of the vaccine are unlikely to be available until early 2021. With this in mind, it will be crucial for the government to ensure its communications department is fully functioning to help warn a wary public of the risks of not adhering to COVID-19 guidelines before the vaccine has been administered widely. If the PMs own internal staffing problems are seen to impact further on the COVID-19 response, there could be serious political ramifications for the PM.
Brexit battles
With attention diverted elsewhere recently, it is important to remember that the UK is set to leave the transition period in seven weeks without a trade deal, unless a last minute agreement can be reached. This week the Irish foreign minister warned that Brexit talks could “fall apart” as the UK and EU have still failed to reach agreement over the “level playing field” post-January. The EU wants guarantees from the UK relating to state aid, tax, the environment and labour rights, but the government is unwilling to sign up to any such deal that restricts its regulatory freedom in the future.
The Telegraph notes that as the EU Parliament must ratify any potential deal by the end of the year, it is likely that Thursday next week (19th November) is one of the last possible dates for an agreement to be made. This is because EU leaders are meeting for a virtual summit where sign off for the new deal could be agreed. For his part, the PM is remaining optimistic about the chances of a deal, insisting that there is a “deal to be done” and that the outlines of this are clear. However, with the economic impacts of COVID-19 continuing to hit, the PM can ill-afford further economic turbulence. Whether either side gives in to the others demands is yet to be seen, but the PM could soon find himself with a decision between sticking to his Brexit principles and leaving without a trade deal, or agreeing to a deal to protect the economy but potentially upsetting some of his most loyal supporters.
Look ahead
With change afoot in both the White House and Downing Street, the next few weeks will be critical for the future of the government. From managing the release of the second national lockdown in England to securing a trade deal with the EU, the government must ensure it plays it cards right to help protect the economy and save lives. Downing Street will hope that that the changes in personnel can act as a turning point for the government and reset the agenda. By securing an EU trade deal, successfully rolling out a vaccine and forging a strong relationship with President-elect Biden, Johnson can get back onto the front foot as we head into 2021 and the first electoral tests of his premiership.