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On 9 January 2017, Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness resigned as deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland. The decision, which grabbed media headlines across the UK, was a culmination of weeks of political disagreement and tension between the governing parties in the Stormont Executive.
The roots of this latest crisis stretch back to before Christmas, when Arlene Foster – the First Minister of Northern Ireland and the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party – was implicated in a botched renewable energy scheme that could cost our Executive hundreds of millions of pounds.
Known as the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI), the scheme had been set up by Mrs Foster in 2012, when she was Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Investment.
Sinn Féin called for an independent investigation into the scheme, and asked the First Minister to temporarily stand down while a preliminary report was produced. Whilst agreeing to the investigation - with no evidence suggesting that she had done wrong – Foster refused to stand down. This caused outcry among other parties, who believed it would be a conflict of interest for her to remain in the role.
Mr. McGuinness’ decision wasn’t just motivated by the RHI controversy, however. He also cited problems with the DUP’s stance on issues such equality, and Irish language funding.
On top of this, we get an insight into Sinn Féin’s motivations by looking across the border.
The party contest elections in both parts of the island of Ireland, and entering government south of the border is arguably its main priority. To get there, Sinn Féin will not want to be tarred with the same brush as the DUP – a party that has been accused by its detractors of squandering public money and resisting accountability.
Regardless of the rhymes or reasons, however, the big question on everybody’s lips is: what happens now?
McGuinness’ resignation is almost certain to lead to an Assembly election.
Sinn Féin has until Monday (16 January) to nominate Mr. McGuiness’ replacement as deputy First Minister. Should this happen, the political institutions would be ‘saved’ - the Assembly remaining in place.
However, the party has made clear that it won’t – passing on the baton to Northern Ireland Secretary James Brokenshire. He will have to set a date for a fresh election, once next week’s deadline passes. The earliest date Northern Ireland can go to the polls is 2 March.
Brokenshire doesn’t have to do this immediately, but with Sinn Féin not interested in negotiations ahead of a poll, and the Brexit timetable in mind, he may well decide to act sooner rather than later.
Until then, Sinn Féin’s decision will have significant implications for day-to-day governance in NI.
Under our power sharing arrangements, McGuinness’ resignation means that Arlene Foster also loses her office. Other Executive Ministers keep their jobs, and will remain in post right up until election day. Yet with no First Minister or deputy First Minister in place, the Executive cannot meet. This means that measures needing Executive approval, including legislation and the Budget, are put on hold.
All in all, Northern Ireland’s politicos are gearing themselves up for another period of uncertainty. This week’s events have shaken our power-sharing arrangements to the core, and with the local parties now on an election footing, things don’t look like settling down for a while yet.