The disastrous 2017 election result for the Conservative Party has set the context within which UK politics has been operating ever since. Yesterday’s reshuffle is another reminder that the Prime Minister’s political authority is diminished, a result of her failure to secure that most basic of political requirements in Westminster politics – a workable majority in the House of Commons.
This was a failure of expectations management and a misjudgement of the political capital available to the Prime Minister. The plan was that retaining the big four (Johnson, Hammond, Davis and Rudd) would provide a stable, Brexit-balanced platform below which May could enact more widespread changes than many assumed she had the political space to implement.
The refusal of Jeremy Hunt to play ball and accept a new job as Business Secretary forced May to back down and keep him in post, leaving a gaping hole in her plans. Business Secretary Greg Clark, widely tipped to be moved, was able to keep his job without argument as a result. When Justine Greening followed suit and refused a switch from Education to Work and Pensions, a stand-off lasting over two hours was ultimately resolved with Greening leaving the Government.
So what are the key implications of all this for business?
Some welcome continuity
Although it was not entirely intended by No 10, there will be continuity at a number of key departments that businesses must engage with. Jeremy Hunt remains in place at health with social care added to his title (though it is not yet clear exactly how this will be implemented in his portfolio). Greg Clark continues at BEIS, providing an important advocate at the Cabinet table for the needs of business in relation to Brexit, while Chris Grayling also remains unmoved at Transport.
Speculation that a minster with responsibility for housing would be given a seat at the Cabinet table turned out to be true, after a fashion. It just turns out to be the same minister that performed this role previously. Sajid Javid was re-appointed with a small change to his title and department; he is now Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government. This nevertheless reinforces the importance of housing to the Government’s legislative policy agenda.
In all these departments, the retention of Cabinet Ministers with experience of their briefs and good understanding of businesses’ priorities and concerns will provide a degree of reassurance to industry.
Some areas of change
The key changes that did go ahead were precipitated by the need to fill Damian Green’s vacant Cabinet Office post and the resignations of James Brokenshire as Northern Ireland Secretary (for health reasons) and Justine Greening.
The reliable and well respected David Liddington is the new man in the Cabinet Office and, while he has not inherited Green’s First Secretary of State title, he will still chair a number of key cabinet committees and deputise at PMQs when the Prime Minister is unavailable. He must now be considered a key figure within Government and is clearly trusted by No 10.
Damian Hinds comes in at Education. Tipped as a rising star in the Conservative Party for some time, he has been promoted from his role as Minister for Employment at the Department of Work and Pensions. His credentials for the job include a two year spell on the Education select committee and time as Chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Social Mobility. The latter suggests an alignment with the Prime Minister’s own social mobility agenda and a likely continuation of this as a policy focus within the Department for Education.
Matt Hancock is another new entrant to the Cabinet, promoted to Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport from the Digital Minister role in that department. He is seen as a round peg in a round hole and will ensure DCMS continues to focus ruthlessly on improving the UK’s digital infrastructure. Meanwhile, No 10 have ‘uncorked the Gauke’ and moved the man perceived as among the safest pair of hands in Government to another tricky assignment at the Justice Department.
In addition, the inclusion of social care as part of Jeremy Hunt’s title, and the change to the name of his department, is being taken as a signal that the government is taking social care seriously. While commentators have expressed doubt that it is anything more than window dressing, No 10 was quick to make it clear that responsibility for the social care Green Paper will be moving from the Cabinet Office to the new Department for Health and Social Care. If the funding flows that way as well – away from the new Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government – it may signify a further step towards integration of health and social care.
While these changes will all place an imperative on business to engage with the new personalities running these departments, few of them are likely to precipitate a significant shift in overall policy direction.
Conservative renewal
The first order of business was a re-vamp of the Conservative Party’s internal structures, seeking to address some of the shortcomings identified following the failure of the 2017 election. The whole process started with some confusion as both the BBC and CCHQ mistakenly announced that Chris Grayling was to be the new Party Chair. Swift retractions followed a correction from No 10, with Brandon Lewis confirmed in the role – which comes with a seat at the Cabinet table – a short time later.
Lewis will be deputised by James Cleverly, widely tipped for a role in recent media speculation, as well as a small army of vice chairs covering areas ranging from Policy, Candidates, and Business Engagement to Youth, Women, and Local Government. Occupants of these roles appear to represent a mixture of up and coming talent, such as Kemi Badenoch, and MPs whose tenures in the junior ministerial rankings appear to have come to an end in order to make room for fresh blood, such as Andrew Jones (Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury) and Marcus Jones (Local Government Minister).
These appointments could be very useful in extending the roster of MPs required to vote with the Government without handing out formal ministerial roles. This could prove extremely valuable in the coming months.
Less male, pale and stale?
In short, not very. Esther McVey’s swift elevation to Work and Pensions Secretary alongside the inclusions of new Immigration Minister Caroline Nokes and Climate Change Minister Claire Perry among those ‘attending’ Cabinet mean one more woman sits around the Cabinet table. However, there were no new non-white faces added to the top tier of ministerial roles.
The suite of Conservative Party vice chair appointments (mentioned above) will at least allow the Party to present a more diverse media presence on party political matters. As far as government roles go, we are likely to see more action in this area in today’s shake up of the junior ministerial ranks.
What next?
Yesterday’s events were, at best, an unnecessary self-inflicted blow to the Prime Minister’s authority, but by no means a fatal one. The new Cabinet will now need to rally together and get on with the job in hand. Brexit looms and there are plenty of domestic policy challenges that need to be tackled.
Business meanwhile has some new faces to engage and several familiar ones to re-connect with. However, the job is not yet finished. Today will see more changes to the lower levels of government and it is often at these levels that much of business engagement with Government takes place.