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Throughout the last week one of the items on top of the political agenda has been the debates. Should you be there, should they happen at all, and will it be any good?
For the Tories, the answer is no, no, no. Cameron has reluctantly agreed to participate in one, but with so many participants that the opening speeches could comprise more than half the show. Clearly such a number will drown out any real debate.
For Labour the answer is yes, yes, yes. Ironically for Miliband it’s the low expectations that people have of him that are his greatest asset. It would be nigh on impossible for him to underperform and that would serve to show up Cameron.
This isn’t a tangential argument either, at the last election it was the debates that led to the Lib Dem surge that defined the whole campaigning period. Whether Cameron likes it or not, it’s he who let the genie out the bottle, and to renege now will look like flip-flopping in the eyes of the voters. This is borne out in the polling.
YouGov shows that 69% of people think there should be debates (vs 19% saying there should not) and 39% think that it will help them make up their mind about who they vote for. Only 8% of people think debates are ‘bad for democracy’. Worryingly for Cameron, half of voters think that he is ‘scared’ of debating and he receives most of the blame for the breakdown in the talks – over half think the debates should still go ahead even if he won’t participate – interestingly most people also agree that the head-to-head debate should go ahead, even without Cameron, albeit the vote here is more evenly split.
As ever the general polling shows an undecided electorate. Most polls still show Labour ahead, but the number leaning towards the Tories is steadily rising, which continues the impression of a photo finish. Perhaps in these most tightest of polls, the debacle over the debate could be enough to swing it.
This post was originally published on the Interel 2015 Election Insights website.