This Sunday thousands of Labour members, supporters, journalists and politicos will descend upon Brighton seafront for the start of the annual Labour Conference. This Labour conference is set to be one of the most interesting for a generation. It will provide a very public litmus test of where the party is at and how it is going to address the political tensions that could rupture the party. It is a conference that is sure to be crackling with debate in a manner that no conference has done since the 1980s, with those that would have once been speaking at the “fringest” of fringe events now leading the debate from within the main hall.
Corbyn has acknowledged the scale of the challenge that lies ahead of him. He must maintain the support of his parties’ members who elected him and his mistrustful MPs, all the while trying to reach out to the general public, cement his legitimacy, and position the Labour Party as a credible alternative Government.
These challenges will not be easy. This week’s Ipsos Mori poll showed that Corbyn’s net satisfaction rating is at -3% meaning he has become the first Labour leader to score a negative rating in his debut poll. Similarly so, a YouGov poll for the New Statesman found this week that there is a political gulf dividing the Party. While 81% of Corbyn supporters self-identify as left-wing, the poll found that only 15% of potential Labour voters do so. It revealed a chasm between the beliefs that Corbyn voters have propagated that Labour target voters want red-blooded socialism. For instance, less than one in four target voters are opposed to free-market competition, low taxes, private schools and the monarchy. These devastating blows accompany rumours from across the party of possible coups from the right and defections to the Liberal Democrats.
Mr Corbyn’s speech will need to prove his critics wrong. He will need to unite the party behind him as well as confront the issues that are presenting his Shadow Cabinet as highly divisive, namely – nuclear deterrence and collective security. Since his election it has become clear his deputy leader and parliamentary party overwhelmingly disagree with him on this. The party debate on Trident is sure to be one to watch.
Everyone will be waiting with baited breath to see if Mr Corbyn is ready for this challenge, does he have the political expertise to ride the storms ahead and if not, what does this mean for the future of the Labour Party?
5 things you need to know:
1. Corbyn’s first Conference speech – Of the thousands of speeches Corbyn has given throughout his career, this one will be drawing a much larger audience and probably one that is less receptive to his message. At 2.15pm on Tuesday, all eyes will be on him; with party activists on the left ready to give him a hero’s welcome whilst many in the parliamentary party will be waiting to see if he can pass probation
2. Will Blairites be on the early train home? – The ambiguity amongst the party on many divisive issues will be clear, it will be the focus of much of the analysis of conference. The party is going to need to decide how to display itself as one of unity that allows open debate and will decide its policy stances in a democratic manner.
3. A toxic issue – The renewal of the multibillion pound Trident nuclear deterrent has been added to the agenda after local constituency parties put forward the motion opposing its renewal. The contentious issue is set to highlight party divisions, and is one which will be indicative of the way such matters will be handled under Corbyn’s leadership.
4.The ghost of Tony Benn – The memory of the last time the left was in ascendancy has brought with it the same fears that Labour is set for a period in the political wilderness. Whilst contending this fear, Corbyn will also be challenged by one of the biggest issues at the base of the party’s split in the 1980s that was spearheaded by the late Tony Benn – mandatory reselection of all MPs at each election.
5. A political balancing act – Corbyn’s mandate largely rests on ensuring the tens of thousands of new supporters and affiliates continue to support him. He will be walking a dangerous tightrope in appealing to this energised group whilst balancing the demands of his new Shadow Cabinet and MPs.