With summer recess looming in Cardiff Bay and the shadow of the Assembly Election slowly creeping up on AMs, focus is beginning to shift to the big questions. Arguably the biggest of them all is what deal will Wales get when it comes to the UK’s brand-spanking new constitutional settlement?
Devolution, devolution, devolution seems to be the mantra of this UK Government, and if the St David’s Day Agreement is anything to go by, Cardiff Bay could reap the rewards, with a whole raft of new powers. The longstanding barrier to any further devolution agreement is rooted in a quibble between Wales’ First Minister and the Conservatives in Westminster over funding and the need for a referendum on the devolution of income tax powers.
The First Minster’s recent comments that giving the Assembly control over certain fiscal powers was the “next logical step” has reinvigorated hope amongst many that change in Wales’ constitutional settlement was imminent. But before we get ahead of ourselves, a poll out this week has shown that the opponents of devolving income tax powers have a significant lead.
It’s clear that it will be an up-hill struggle even to get the public to back any further devolution, never mind getting the various parties to agree on any settlement.
So where does this leave Wales?
Potentially the biggest change on the horizon when it comes to Welsh influence on legislation is happening at the opposite end of the M4, where William Hague’s legacy of English votes for English laws has begun to gain traction.
Disconcertingly referred to as EVEL, the controversial proposals will mean English MPs will retain an effective “veto” over any measures which exclusively affect their constituents. Of course defining what does exclusively affect their constituents is a serious challenge in itself; a challenge which under the current proposals has been afforded to the Common’s Speaker.
The internal logic of EVEL is evident. If we are increasing the ability of Scottish and Welsh lawmakers to self-determine, the English contingent should surely be offered the same privilege. However, it is likely to face a great deal of scepticism from the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish MPs who will feel increasingly pushed out by the proposals.
Despite its name, the proposals do contain a provision whereby if a power is devolved to Scotland, but not to England and Wales, the consent of English and Welsh MPs would be required. But this is unlikely to placate many of the sceptics.
Former Welsh Secretary David Jones was one of the first to speak up, saying that people in the North Wales region which he represents were “heavily reliant on services provided in England, most particularly health services”. A number of the Welsh Westminster cohort followed suit, raising concerns that their powers will be constrained on issues which both directly and indirectly affect their constituents – whether that is transport or broader issues which would have knock on effects when it came to the devolved administrations’ budgets.
A Wales Bill looks ever less likely to appear in the first 100 days of this Government and even then an ensuing deal on devolution seems increasingly precarious. So, whilst we have all been preoccupied with the devolution agenda and who will get what additional powers, somewhat ironically, the first big change from the perspective of Welsh lawmakers looks to be the shrinking of their influence in Westminster.
EVEL might have seemed a necessary political move in terms of the Scotland-England context – especially for an English dominated Conservative Government – but these proposals are unlikely to find favour with many in Wales.