A short overview of the conflict:
Long predicted by Western intelligence agencies and governments, Russian military forces moved across the border and into Ukraine on 24 February. The move followed weeks of joint exercises that also took place with their ally, Belarus. President Vladimir Putin had stated as recently as 19 February that these exercises were ‘purely defensive’, and ‘not a threat to any other country’.
Clearly, this was not the case. Subsequently, Putin labelled the invasion a ‘special military operation’, with Russian media outlets outlawed from using terms such as ‘invasion’ and ‘war’ to describe aggressive military activity in Ukraine. This is just the latest sign of the Kremlin’s ever-growing authoritative rhetoric and actions - both regionally and domestically.
Vladimir Putin: A personal vendetta?
Consequently, many are now questioning the temperament and stability of Putin. Prominent Russian and global figures are publicly voicing their concerns at a volatile and impulsive dictator. Mikhail Khodorkovsky (formerly touted as the richest man in Russia), extraordinarily exclaimed that this is no longer the Putin of old, and that he had gone ‘mad’. Whilst such claims are largely unfounded, political commentators began to notice differences in what was previously a politically level-headed Putin, when he gave a televised speech prior to the announcement of the invasion.
On Monday 21 February, the Russian president made a rambling speech lasting nearly an hour, eventually leading to the announcement of the Kremlin’s recognition of two self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine. This anticipated announcement was expected to catch the attention of the on-looking global media. However, one could argue that the standout headline was inspired by Putin’s lecturing history lesson. Widely condemned and dubbed as Putin’s personal and warped view of historical events, the dictator essentially labelled Ukraine as a ‘fake state’ - blaming Lenin for its existence. Naturally, this led the fears of war from those inside Ukraine and around the world, to escalate further.
‘Diplomatic Failure’: An unfair criticism of Western leaders?
Were diplomatic efforts a lost cause from the beginning?
Understandably, the failure of diplomacy to prevent war has been widely labelled as a ‘diplomatic failure’ by the media. However, there are credible arguments to state that these efforts may have been doomed from the start. Firstly, the operational similarity of the invasion with the military drills that the Kremlin claimed were not a threat (including using Belarus as a base), is undeniable. Specifically, the marking of military vehicles (such as tanks) with a letter has been a hot topic for discussion- with experts asserting that this is almost certainly to ensure that the vehicle can be easily distinguished from the Ukrainian military.
Moreover, there are growing claims that Moscow’s video declaring the beginning of the ‘special military operation’ was pre-recorded days before the invasion occurred. The claim originated from one of Russia’s truly independent newspapers, Novaya Gazeta, which stated the video was in fact, filmed three days before the invasion commenced. It would therefore be very reasonable to argue that Putin had already pre-determined Ukraine’s fate at the same time that the last-ditch diplomatic efforts were being made.
The impact of economic sanctions
The position of Ukraine as a ‘partner’ rather than a ‘member’ of NATO has essentially tied the hands of Western powers to counter Russian aggression. As a result, severe economic sanctions have been used to attempt to prevent Russian military action. In this realm, they have currently failed. Criticism has been specifically aimed at the United States and their tactic of phased sanctions. However, ‘sanction strategy’ - when the primary plan is ‘conflict deterrence’ is complex, consequently resulting in several issues for the west.
Firstly, a major criticism of western strategy was that the packages initially offered too little punishment- allowing Putin to go ahead with his invasion as planned. However, the west could not justify throwing every economic sanction on the table in one go. This would have reduced the future deterrent capabilities of sanctions against Russia.
Additionally, it was essential that the west acted in a co-ordinated manner. This demonstrated western unity in the face of Russian aggression. Furthermore, it ensured that the United States could not act prematurely when announcing sanctions- a move that would have potentially harmed economies in Europe - to nearly the same extent as Russia’s. The nearly universal isolation of Russia from SWIFT payments, amongst other measures, has the potential to cripple Russia’s economy in the medium to long term. Time will tell if these sanctions can prevent further escalations in the conflict.
A silent, looming healthcare emergency?
Outside of Ukraine, the understandable focus will now be set on the resulting humanitarian and refugee crisis that will ensue. As of 1 March, the UN estimated there were already 500,000 refugees who have fled the country, with up to 5 million possible over the coming years. Whilst this will provide issues in Europe in the long term, an immediate silent healthcare emergency is on the verge of exploding in Ukraine today. With Russian troops advancing and supply lines narrowing by the day, food is not the only essential item running out.
COVID-19 - forgotten, but not invisible
A growing fear within the Ukrainian healthcare field has been about COVID-19. On 25 February 2022, Ukraine recorded 27,538 COVID-19 cases. A day later, case numbers were listed as zero - with the testing infrastructure essentially destroyed by the invasion. This will undoubtedly lead to uncontrolled transmission between frightened civilians huddled in bomb shelters, in cities such as Kyiv, for example. A more pressing issue however, is a lack of oxygen supply, an issue only really seen in the United Kingdom at the height of COVID-19 case waves. On 27 February, the World Health Organisation (WHO) issued an emergency statement regarding a ‘critical oxygen situation’. WHO is currently pleading to and working with partners in Poland to streamline supply lines, and establish safe transit of supplies through Poland.
Grassroots campaigns
Aside from COVID-19, grassroots organisations are pleading with governments and the general public to raise funds and supplies for those with health ailments, who are stuck inside of Ukraine. A prominent example of this over the past week can be seen within the UK’s diabetic community. Charities have been mobilising support to raise funds and equipment with organisations like ‘TypeOneStyle’, outlining how wide-ranging supply line disruption will impact diabetic groups stuck in the country. Lack of food will lead to drastically increased rates of hypoglycaemia and along with testing and insulin shortages, one can look to the issues facing diabetic communities in a broader fashion.
A health crisis is looming in Ukraine, and the extent to which supply lines continue to be disrupted, may drastically impact the health of Ukrainians in the weeks to come.