This week, we look back on the events that led to Liz Truss resigning as prime minister just 44 days into her role. She will be the shortest serving prime minister in British political history. We reflect on what really went wrong for Truss and what the country can expect to happen next within the Westminster bubble.
20/10/2022
A date that will be forever etched in British history. After meeting with Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the powerful 1922 Conservative backbench committee on Thursday lunchtime, a press conference was held at 13:30 in which Truss announced to the nation that she had tendered her resignation to King Charles, and would step down as prime minister. Liz Truss explained that given the current situation, she felt unable to deliver her mandate. She is the shortest serving prime minister in British political history.
Truss went on to announce that there will be another leadership election amongst Conservative party MPs to determine her successor. This will be completed within a week, and Truss will remain as prime minister until a candidate is chosen. This will see one of the most controversial transitions of power in modern British political history, and the country will have its third PM in a year by the end of this month. In a short speech, there were no tears in as we saw with Theresa May and no declaration of how proud she was to have served the country. Instead, in what perhaps encapsulates how many in the country see her, she signed off with a characteristically short statement mentioning her achievements, including the cap on energy bills and returned back inside number 10 accompanied by her husband.
Speaking outside of the Palace of Westminster after the prime minister’s press conference, Sir Graham Brady said that he expected the result of the leadership election to be announced by Friday next week. In the immediate aftermath of the statement, speculation had grown as to whether the wider Conservative party membership would have a role in deciding who the next leader of the country would be. Sir Graham Brady announced that he did expect the party membership to be able to vote for their preferred candidate, much like in the summer. This time, it will of course take place over a much shorter time frame, and members will be able to vote through an online ballot. This has created questions over the validity of the vote, including whether hostile foreign powers such as Russia will be able to influence the outcome. It is worth nothing that Tory party members will only get a say once two candidates remain. For the parliamentary party, the race is now to see if they can unify around one MP.
How did Liz Truss reach her fate?
On 14 September, a familiar face in the Conservative Party returned to the heart of Government in a time where some commentators were stating the country is in its biggest crisis since that of the Suez Canal. That crisis has now of course escalated, and it is hard to find a reasonable comparison in modern British political history.
A Friday does indeed seem to be a day of chaos and calamity for this current Conservative government. It was of course on Friday 23September, when the former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, revealed the government’s ‘growth plan’ to the house of commons, in what has been dubbed as a “mini budget”. Unfortunately for Truss, the pledges of unfunded tax cuts in a £45bn programme aimed at promoting growth and reducing debt by a proportion of national GDP in the medium term crashed the markets. Specifically, the pound fell to an all-time low against the dollar at $1.03 and the Bank of England was forced to spend £65bn purchasing government gilts in order to mitigate against further financial crisis.
Under mounting pressure, Kwasi Kwarteng returned early from a trip to the United States and was unceremoniously sacked. It has since been reported that Mr Kwarteng may even have first heard about reports of his sacking on Twitter. A few hours later, the government announced that Jeremy Hunt was to take up the office of the chancellor of the exchequer, in a move aimed at unifying conflicting sectors of the Conservative party, whilst aiming to provide some stability in the markets with a household name.
In a dramatic move on the following Monday that aimed to reassure financial markets and investors that the UK’s economy and fiscal policies were sustainable, Hunt sealed arguably the biggest fiscal U-turn in this country’s political history. Liz Truss’ second chancellor and the UK’s fourth in four months announced that he was reversing the vast majority of the tax cutting “mini budget” policies, and asked that each government department find cost saving efficiencies. Whilst rumours had circulated earlier that morning hinting at dramatic U-turns, these went much further than many expected. Of the policy reversals announced, the headline story was unquestionably the change in policy to the energy price guarantee. The intervention, which had originally been pledged to last for two years was slashed to six months.
The political ramifications of these policy reversals cannot be emphasised enough, and set off a ticking time bomb inside 10 Downing Street. For the days and weeks previous, the prime minister had been sending government ministers out to bat in the media slamming of Labour’s longstanding commitment to capping the support at six months. This political calculation misfired massively, giving the Labour party the appearance of an economically responsible government in waiting. In the grander scheme of things, this was ultimately the start of a domino effect in which Truss lost the confidence, trust and respect of her Parliamentary party.
‘I’m a fighter, not a quitter’
In the final full day of Liz Truss’s premiership, her appearance PM questions was greatly anticipated. This followed the prime minister’s no show in the House of Commons on Monday, where she sent Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the House of Commons, out to face Labour’s emergency motion on the economic status of the country on Monday.
Liz Truss cast a defiant figure in the face of stiff questioning and jeering from the opposition benches. On a day when it was announced that inflation had reached a level of 10.1%, it was crucial that the prime minister put on a brave performance. Amongst tough questioning, Keir Starmer asked Truss about the sacking of former chancellor of the exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng and asked why Liz Truss deserved to remain in post whilst he did not. The prime minister responded by stating that she is a fighter and not a quitter. Retrospectively, this was an unfortunate choice of words, given the events that would unfold over the following 24 hours.
Many thought PMQs would be the big drama show of the day, alas this was not to be the case. Despite a spirited performance under difficult circumstances in which many political commentators believed that the prime minister may have in fact bought herself a bit of time to steady the ship, this ceased to matter. Later that afternoon, the Government was handed another heavy blow with the resignation of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary. Understandably, initial reports speculated around the nature of the departure, and whether it was due to a lack of confidence in the prime minister.
After the truth prevailed, it emerged that the former Home Secretary had breached the Ministerial code by sharing confidential information on upcoming migration policy to a fellow MP on a personal mobile phone and subsequently, Braverman resigned. In another blow to the Government, Suella Braverman criticised and questioned the direction of the government under Liz Truss in her public letter of resignation to the prime minister. This served to further undermine Truss’s authority ahead of a fracking debate billed as a vote of confidence in the Government, although there was confusion around this from the whips and Conservative MPs. However, no one could have predicted the drama that awaited the prime minister. Even ahead of PMQ’s, this was a government trying to survive day by day, hour by hour, policy by policy. The headline announcement of triple lock pensions protected was even shadowed by a multitude of events.
Firstly, Jeremy Hunt had publically refused to answer questions on the topic the day before, hesitating to make any pledges on public finances ahead of the medium term fiscal plan on 31st October. Secondly, it emerged during prime minister’s questions that Liz Truss’s Chief of Staff had been suspended pending an investigation by an ethics committee. Her grip on power looked ever more fragile as the evening crept closer. However, no political commentator could have predicted the next- and last- 24 hours of Liz Truss’s tumultuous reign as prime minister.
Chaos breeds chaos
On Wednesday night, there was a chaotic vote in the House of Commons, which showed the Government disintegrating in real time. In an Opposition Day debate, where the opposition are allowed to set the agenda, Labour were attempting to seize control of the future House of Commons in order to pass a law to ban fracking—which if it passed would be an embarrassing and unusual thing to happen to the Government. The Government reacted by saying that the vote would be a de facto vote of confidence in the Government, meaning that any Tory MP who voted against would lose the whip, and would therefore be publically expressing no confidence in Liz Truss and her premiership. Scores of MPs reacted furiously to this news, as many MPs do not support the re-introduction of fracking and feared it would backfire for them locally in their seats.
Chaos began as rumours swirled that in the end the vote wouldn’t be a vote of confidence after all, with Climate Minister Graham Stuart saying in the Chamber barely 10 minutes before the vote that it wouldn’t be. It was not clear what the situation was at all, and news then began to unfold dramatically on Twitter, with stories of Government ministers shouting and physically man-handling reluctant Tory MPs into their lobby.
News also came out that Wendy Morton MP, the Chief Whip, had said she was resigning during the voting process because no one had told her the vote was no longer a confidence vote. In dramatic scenes, Liz Truss apparently chased her round the parliamentary estate attempting to keep her onside, losing her security detail in the process. The Deputy Chief Whip, Craig Whittaker MP, was also seen storming furiously out of the lobby and swearing, saying he had quit too. It was clear that absolutely no one knew what was happening and that abject chaos was reigning.
The Tories won the vote, meaning Labour would not be able to take control of legislation, but then continuing the drama Labour MP Chris Bryant said that he had seen bullying, intimidation and physical moves against MPs who were reluctant to vote with the Government, and he called for the Speaker to launch an investigation. No10 were forced to issue a notice at around 10pm that night which said that the Chief Whip and the Deputy were still in post (as even Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Business Secretary, had said live on TV that he had no idea if they were), before sending a note to journalists at 1.30 in the morning saying that it had, in fact, been a confidence vote after all. The complete breakdown of party discipline and cohesion witnessed in this vote precipitated the resignation of the Prime Minister barely 18 hours later, and demonstrated the fractious nature of the Conservative Party.
What was the immediate reaction to the resignation of the Prime Minister?
In the context of the last month, it feels fitting to start by analysing the reaction of the financial markets to the announcement, given they major role they have played in the demise of the Truss administration. Somewhat unsurprisingly, the pound rallied at the news of her resignation, indicative of the opinion of the markets on her premiership. Specifically, leading up to the public statement, sterling rose against the dollar to $1.13 as financial markets anticipated that the prime minister would signal the end of her premiership. Despite dropping slightly, the pound was still trading around 0.4% higher 30 minutes after her statement.
From a political standpoint, the reactions were also somewhat predictable. Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer reiterated his trademark phrase that the country faced ‘a crisis made in Downing Street’, and called for a general election. The First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon used even stronger language to speak on the situation beneath the Scottish border in Westminster. In a heated tweet, Sturgeon declared that “there are no words to describe this utter shambles adequately”, and echoed Starmer’s calls for a general election. Leader of the Liberal Democrats, Sir Ed Davey, took to BBC news to declare that ‘moving the deck chairs on the Titanic is now what the UK needs’, epitomising the widely held view that the Conservative party will not be able to instil a functional government in to the House of Commons.
Who on earth will be next?
Within hours of Liz Truss resigning, clear front runners emerged for the next leader of the Conservative party, and next Prime minister of the United Kingdom. The obvious two candidates are Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt, two politicians popular in their own right within the party. In addition, an unsurprising dark horse has emerged- former prime minister Boris Johnson. Whilst it looks unlikely that Johnson will receive the 100 votes of support required by MPs, a public vote would certainly bring him into the equation. On Wednesday, a poll by YouGov found that 63% of tory party members thought that Boris Johnson would be a good replacement for Liz Truss, followed by Rishi Sunak at only 23%. On Friday afternoon, defence secretary Ben Wallace officially ruled himself out of the race, and declared that he was leaning towards backing Boris Johnson. If Johnson officially puts himself forward for the job, and the Parliamentary party is unable to rally behind one candidate, we could witness the most seismic U-turn yet in British political history and the return of one of the most controversial prime ministers the country has ever seen.
The first ballot of MPs will take place on Monday, and if there are three candidates with more than 10 MPs in support, then the loser will be eliminated. When two candidates remain, MPs will then vote to indicate their preferred choice. Party members will then get the chance to vote from the choice of the two.
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