James Hinchcliffe, Board Director at JBP Associates, the south west’s leading public affairs agency, reviews an exciting night across the West of England where a fourth major political party came to prominence with stunning results, particularly in Bristol.
Labour win prized mayoral races for WECA and Bristol
West of England Combined Authority: Lab Gain from Conservative
Blast from the past storms to victory in key Labour victory
Perhaps one of Labour’s most positive results in the UK, former Wansdyke MP Dan Norris makes a surprise return to frontline politics after more than a decade since his parliamentary defeat to Jacob Rees-Mogg in 2010. Given Labour’s woes nationally, this has all the hallmarks of a surprise.
But the Tories always had an uphill battle to keep the mayoralty for a second term following the retirement of former Mayor Tim Bowles. First, the postponement of the 2020 Bristol City Council elections meant Labour-leaning Bristol generated extra voter turnout (40%) compared to B&NES (34%) and South Gloucestershire (31%). Combined with a larger electorate compared to the other authorities, this advantage was vital.
Second, and perhaps more crucially, was the narrowing of the field with fewer candidates drawing first and second preference voters from the major parties. A notable absence was former Labour election candidate John Savage whose 29,500 first preference votes in 2017 had to shift somewhere. These factors defined the result.
A significant portion of Mr Savage’s votes may have moved across to Mr Norris, particularly in B&NES and South Glos where Labour amassed more than 20,000 extra votes than 2017. By the time first preference vote counting started in Bristol, the turnout differential and electorate size made things almost impossible for the Tory candidate, Samuel Williams, to win.
So, is WECA now a Labour stronghold? Not so fast. In 2025, there will be no Bristol turnout differential. By then, North Somerset Council may have joined the three other councils and make the city region ultra-marginal once again.
Bristol City Council Mayor: Lab Hold
Marvin's magic conjures Labour's second term in Bristol
As a 1/8 odds-on favourite with national bookmakers, there was unlikely to ever be a ‘how did they do that?’ moment for any of the challengers to Mayor Marvin Rees in 2021. Comfortable Labour majorities in the four Bristol parliamentary constituencies and the absence of former mayor George Ferguson on the ballot paper meant a routine performance would probably see Marvin Rees home.
And so it proved, with a convincing 13-point victory after second preference votes. But the surprise of the night was the Green Party. Compared to 2016, an increased vote share of 19 points, over 26,000 extra first preference votes, and a place in the final run-off with Labour were more than Green candidate Sandy Hore-Ruthven could have privately hoped for.
Count observers witnessed a Green surge in Bristol West wards as inner-city communities simply switched sides with possible consequences for Labour’s councillor numbers. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, whose key policy was abolishing the mayoral position they were standing for, had cause for some optimism too. Tory Alistair Watson and Lib-Dem Caroline Gooch appeared to absorb some of George Ferguson’s 2016 first preference vote to achieve their party’s best results for Bristol Mayor (up 4.6% and 5.8% respectively).
So, come May 2024, should Labour be concerned with the modest decline in their vote? Much depends on the de facto Green opposition extending their appeal to voters outside a two-mile radius of the city centre. Thirty years since being founded, the Green vote has barely flickered in Bristol’s suburbs. And that situation must change to avoid being a perennial supporting act in future mayoral races.
Bristol City Council Elections: Lab Hold
Greens draw the battlelines for May 2024 in spectacular gains
The last major victory for Labour to secure in the West of England was repeating their success in 2016 and reseizing an overall majority of elected members on the council. This hat-trick looked unlikely given the star turn by the Mr Hore-Ruthven in the Mayoral result announced the previous day. The Green Party were set for a strong showing in the council elections.
Labour lost about a third of their seats; the Greens doubled their number – with seats for the first time in the Bristol East and Bristol North West parliamentary constituencies.
When significant powers are invested in both mayors, does this matter? Unequivocally: ‘Yes’.
First, the Greens are now the main opposition party in Bristol. Momentum is behind them. More councillors mean they have an opportunity to raise ‘brand profile’ in areas of the city outside the urban belt of seats captured last Thursday. Suburban support is essential for a Green mayoral candidate to topple whoever Labour choose to replace Mayor Rees, who has announced he will step down in 2024.
Second, wherever Mayor Rees turns with his policy program, the Greens have greater councillor numbers to question and oppose. Even if this opposition is symbolic in the form of tools like council motions to make political noise. Planning committees will rebalance with equal numbers of Labour and Greens. Of course, planning is not political…but could consents for new homes ‘gum up’ compared to the previous five years without a majority of councillors from a single party?
For Labour, they have relied upon a broad coalition of voters in Bristol to deliver election success, such as students and blue-collar workers. The more radical, central urban element of that coalition drifted towards the Greens at these elections. Can Labour regain these lost voters and, if not, can they prevent a further Green surge (starting to emerge) into Bristol’s Labour leaning outskirts? The 1,000 days or so countdown to the next local election battle begins.
Oasis of calm in Gloucestershire as Tories come out on top
Gloucestershire County Council: Con Hold
Cheltenham Borough Council: Lib-Dem Hold
Gloucester City Council: Con Gain
Stroud District Council: NOC Hold
After eleven years in national government, the Conservatives at all tiers of local government in Gloucestershire would typically have closed their eyes and waited for the inevitable electoral kicking. But these are not normal times with the Labour Party fighting Tory tanks on northern lawns and the Lib Dems still flatlining in Westminster. The Conservatives in Gloucester could even afford to pinch seats from Labour, including three in one go in Matson and Robinswood, to retake control of the council. Yes, there was some seat trading across the parties. For instance, the Greens gained a stronger foothold in Stroud with wins against Conservative and Labour candidates. They also unlocked seats from Tory County Councillors in the Forest of Dean, including key members of the previous cabinet.
But overall, change was minimal. Note for the future, the Conservatives and Labour in the Forest of Dean and Stroud might be wise to peer south to see the emergence of the Green Party in Bristol. There, too, started with a gentle ebb of Green votes and seats towards. Five years later, the ebb has become a flood.
Conservative Wiltshire ship sails to victory
Wiltshire Council: Con Hold
As the drama played out along England’s ‘Red Wall’, most results in areas already dominated by the Conservatives had an air of calm. Little was going to capsize the party in Wiltshire, where the Tories had maintained a secure grip on power since 2009 –when the authority was first created.
Although some choppy waters were encountered against a background of increased concern over perceived over-development in the county, they never seemed in danger of creating a wave of Lib-Dem gains. Although Labour retained its three seats in Salisbury, they struggled to find enough candidates to field across the Council in recent months.
The lack of candidates in some wards benefited the Liberal Democrats. For example, in Chippenham Hardenhuish, which the Conservatives won by only 35 votes in 2017, the Liberal Democrats gained a majority of 291. The Liberal Democrats also performed well in Trowbridge, gaining two seats from the Conservatives whilst holding them off in a tight contest in Trowbridge Paxcroft, which was a two-horse race with Labour not standing here.
Despite election doldrums, the big news is that Council Leader Cllr Philip Whitehead resigned from the role before the count. Several members could plausibly succeed him. Expect one of the frontrunners to be Cllr Richard Clewer, the deputy leader and a key cabinet member who has stood for leader previously. When asked on his intentions at the count, Cllr Clewer said that he would certainly ‘consider challenging for the leadership again.’ A new captain at the helm beckons.